Many expats in the Netherlands are asking the same question in 2026: “Should I buy a property now, or wait for the market to cool down?” It’s understandable. Mortgage interest rates have risen significantly in the last 3 months compared to recent years, while Dutch property prices remain high in many cities. At the same time, housing shortages continue and competition for good homes remains strong. So what is the right move?
The answer depends less on timing the market and more on your personal situation and long-term plans.
The Dutch housing shortage is still significant
One of the main reasons Dutch house prices remain relatively strong is the ongoing housing shortage. According to estimates from the Dutch government and housing organizations, the Netherlands still faces a shortage of hundreds of thousands of homes. New construction has slowed due to:
- higher construction costs
- permit delays
- labor shortages
- rising financing costs for developers
This means supply remains limited, especially in popular expat areas such as Amsterdam, Haarlem, Utrecht, Rotterdam and Eindhoven.
Interest rates have increased sharply
Over the last two years, mortgage rates decreased from a 5% level to a 3.5% level for many fixed-rate periods. But in the last 3 months the increase in rates is significant. Higher interest rates reduce borrowing capacity. In practice, many buyers can now borrow less than they could at the start of the year.
As Serge from Independent Expat Finance explains:
“A higher mortgage rate directly impacts monthly affordability. Buyers today need to balance property prices with higher financing costs.”
Could prices fall in 2026?
A large Dutch housing price crash currently seems unlikely because housing supply remains extremely limited. However, price growth may slow down compared to previous years. Some regions could stabilize temporarily, while highly desirable areas may continue to see upward pressure. For expats, this means waiting does not automatically guarantee cheaper buying opportunities later.
Renting versus buying
For many expats, another important consideration is the Dutch rental market. Rental prices in the private sector have increased sharply in recent years, especially for furnished apartments in expat-heavy cities. In some cases, monthly rent is now comparable to mortgage payments — even with higher interest rates. Buying may therefore still make financial sense if:
- you expect to stay in the Netherlands for several years
- your income is stable
- you want predictable monthly costs
- you want to build equity instead of paying rent
Timing the market is difficult
Trying to perfectly predict the housing market is extremely difficult — even for economists and banks. Instead of trying to buy at the absolute bottom of the market, it is usually more important to ask:
- Can I comfortably afford the monthly costs?
- Am I planning to stay in the Netherlands long enough?
- Does buying fit my personal and professional plans?
If the answer is yes, buying can still be a smart long-term decision despite market uncertainty.
The Dutch housing & mortgage market has become more complex in 2026. Sometimes with bidding you need to offer much more then the asking price and other times you can negotiate below the asking price. Bidding strategies matter more than ever in competitive markets. Properties that are turn-key and or have good energy labels are especially highly in demand at the moment. Interest rates are also moving quickly and lender rules changing to keep up with EU regulations.
At Independent Expat Finance, we help expats understand exactly where they stand before they start bidding. We explain your borrowing capacity, monthly costs, mortgage options and what strategy best fits your situation.
Interested in your options?
Book your free consultation here.
You don’t have to figure this out alone.
We’ll guide you step by step, all the way to your new home.
